今年前10月新生兒僅12.56萬,台灣1年消 - 工程師

By Steve
at 2021-11-27T14:04
at 2021-11-27T14:04
Table of Contents
今年前10月新生兒僅12.56萬,台灣1年消失掉1.6個宜蘭市....
https://tinyurl.com/yc469rdz
生育率逐年遞減,將嚴重衝擊我國人口結構與經濟發展。(圖片來源/Jerry Lai@flickr)
台灣在2020年出現人口「生死交叉」,死亡人數超越新生兒人數,正式進入人口負成長。
今年10月底人口數比去年10月底減少15萬2592人。
台灣人口一年減少15萬2592人,這代表什麼意義?值得大家思考,簡單的算數告訴我們,
它代表的是一年消失1.75個苗栗市、或1.6個宜蘭市、或1.5個花蓮市、或1.46個台東市,
如果以這樣的速度繼續下去,兩年可能就消失30萬人口,幾乎等同於兩年就會消失掉一個新店市(30萬人口)。
今年前10月新生兒僅12.56萬人
根據內政部最新統計,截至10月底,人口數為2341萬3879人,比9月減少1萬7069人;
新生兒1萬3166人,較9月減少298人。累計今年前10月出生數為12萬5636人,較去年同期減少7410人,
台灣正式進入人口負成長階段。
據美國非營利統計機構「人口資料局」數據顯示,去年台灣出生率約1人(0.99),僅次於韓國0.8人
,雙雙敬陪末座。生育率低落將造成人口結構轉變,現在每名青壯年要扶養4.02名老幼人口,再過30年,
我國將會跨過20%老年人口門檻,正式邁入超高齡社會。
我國人口自然增加數在2020年呈現黃金交叉,首度轉為負值,共負0.8萬。(圖片來源/國發會)
預估今年我生育率全球最低,最快再11年總人口跌破2300萬
2020年我國出生率和死亡率呈現黃金交叉,正式邁入「人口負成長」階段,全年出生人口16.5萬人,
死亡人口17.3萬人,總共負0.8萬人,是我國首度面臨「生不如死」的情況。不過與疫情無明顯相關,
因為死亡人口近5年來皆落在17.1到17.6萬餘人左右,未出現明顯波動,出生人口則維持年年下降的趨勢,
2015年還有21.3萬人,去年暴跌到只剩16.5萬。
除自然增加由正轉負以外,去年因疫情影響,社會增加也轉為負值,也造成我國人口20年來首度減少。
2020年總人口數2356萬人,較2019年的2360萬人,減少近4萬人。國發會預估未來將持續下跌,
最快2031年可能就會跌破2300萬人大關。
我國去年生育率僅0.99人,美國中情局推測,2021年生育率將跌至1.07人,排名全球倒數第一。
國發會則較為悲觀,認為若生育意願無明顯改變,今年將只有1.01人,未來十年也只會維持在1.1左右。
一般維持穩定人口結構的替代水準,為每名婦女生產2.1人,但我國自1984年後長期低於此數字,恐
會對整體人口結構造成巨大衝擊。
2025年我國老年人口預估達469萬,正式邁入超高齡社會。(圖片來源/國發會)
少生、老化促扶養比飆高,人口紅利漸流失
儘管出生率明顯下滑,但扶養比卻來到40.2的新高點,即每百名青壯人口,要扶養40.2名老幼人口。
原因在於我國人口邁向高齡化,65歲以上人口數共378萬人,佔總人口達16%,為高齡社會。
依照國發會最新預測,認為2025年老年人口將達到469萬,超過總人口數20%,
正式邁入超高齡社會,也較2018年時的預測提前一年。與此同時,14歲以下人口則持續下探
,去年仍佔12%、共296萬人,2050年將只剩約9%、189萬人,顯示我國老化速度飛快。
人口結構老化、出生率低迷,實為我國一大警鐘,也是重要的國安危機。
除青壯年扶養比日益沉重外,我國人口紅利也逐漸流失,長期來看將造成社會生產力低落,
包括產業缺工、消費力降低、政府稅收減少等問題。
「不婚」害的!政府推公托+津貼救生育率
中研院社會研究所副研究員鄭雁馨指出,生育率下滑的主因是結婚率降低。
由於傳統文化影響,結婚和生育高度相關,台灣的非婚生育比率極低,只有4%(歐盟平均41%)。
因此政府應該進一步釐清不婚結構,了解為何這麼多人不願意結婚或沒有結婚,
有伴侶的人又為何不結婚。
鄭雁馨批評,我國的生育政策過於直線思考,並不是效仿其他國家作法,
一年就能生出30萬個新生兒。她強調,除了發生育津貼以外,政府也必須讓民眾感受到政策的穩定性,
例如穩定、優質的公托環境等。
為鼓勵生育,衛福部5月推出許多鼓勵生育措施,包括發放生育津貼、托育費用補助、補助留職停薪津貼等,
也針對懷孕婦女改善照護措施,例如提高產檢次數及項目、增加帶薪產假。行政院政務委員林萬億也提及,
接下來將會推出長期政策,包括提高托育公共化比例、提高育兒津貼、營造友善職場等。
林萬億指出,德國曾利用提高公托比的方式拯救生育率,政府也希望仿效此方式,
將公托比例在4年內拉高至三成五,並推動送托比提升至72%。
我國總人口數減少,2020年較2019年減少近4萬人,預估未來仍呈降趨勢。
---------------------------
只是想抒發近期個人對此篇新聞的心得:
我個人覺得生育率低除了經濟問題外,最大的問題是職場文化,台灣職場
太多有著天真想法的高階主管,年輕人就是拿來壓榨;剝削甚至是
一個人抵多能工,然後大部分主管都不聽進去年輕人的想法;然後跟公司
主管反應如果現在還抱持著這樣的想法以後只會更找不到人、甚至素質
會更低,公司主管完全聽不進去,只會想“你不做後面一堆人要做”結果
就是年輕人流動率提高,一年四季換四個,我發現現實是一回事,做法
又是另外一回事,以下開放各位補充各種職場怪現象所導致年輕人不想
被凹的說法,隨便草莓族還是躺平族,管他的生育率..
其實小弟有嚴重的世代對立傾向,看到公司一堆的中、老年人都會覺得
“該死不死的”在那裏佔著位子做事效率又差尤其是60~70歲的
--
https://tinyurl.com/yc469rdz
生育率逐年遞減,將嚴重衝擊我國人口結構與經濟發展。(圖片來源/Jerry Lai@flickr)
台灣在2020年出現人口「生死交叉」,死亡人數超越新生兒人數,正式進入人口負成長。
今年10月底人口數比去年10月底減少15萬2592人。
台灣人口一年減少15萬2592人,這代表什麼意義?值得大家思考,簡單的算數告訴我們,
它代表的是一年消失1.75個苗栗市、或1.6個宜蘭市、或1.5個花蓮市、或1.46個台東市,
如果以這樣的速度繼續下去,兩年可能就消失30萬人口,幾乎等同於兩年就會消失掉一個新店市(30萬人口)。
今年前10月新生兒僅12.56萬人
根據內政部最新統計,截至10月底,人口數為2341萬3879人,比9月減少1萬7069人;
新生兒1萬3166人,較9月減少298人。累計今年前10月出生數為12萬5636人,較去年同期減少7410人,
台灣正式進入人口負成長階段。
據美國非營利統計機構「人口資料局」數據顯示,去年台灣出生率約1人(0.99),僅次於韓國0.8人
,雙雙敬陪末座。生育率低落將造成人口結構轉變,現在每名青壯年要扶養4.02名老幼人口,再過30年,
我國將會跨過20%老年人口門檻,正式邁入超高齡社會。
我國人口自然增加數在2020年呈現黃金交叉,首度轉為負值,共負0.8萬。(圖片來源/國發會)
預估今年我生育率全球最低,最快再11年總人口跌破2300萬
2020年我國出生率和死亡率呈現黃金交叉,正式邁入「人口負成長」階段,全年出生人口16.5萬人,
死亡人口17.3萬人,總共負0.8萬人,是我國首度面臨「生不如死」的情況。不過與疫情無明顯相關,
因為死亡人口近5年來皆落在17.1到17.6萬餘人左右,未出現明顯波動,出生人口則維持年年下降的趨勢,
2015年還有21.3萬人,去年暴跌到只剩16.5萬。
除自然增加由正轉負以外,去年因疫情影響,社會增加也轉為負值,也造成我國人口20年來首度減少。
2020年總人口數2356萬人,較2019年的2360萬人,減少近4萬人。國發會預估未來將持續下跌,
最快2031年可能就會跌破2300萬人大關。
我國去年生育率僅0.99人,美國中情局推測,2021年生育率將跌至1.07人,排名全球倒數第一。
國發會則較為悲觀,認為若生育意願無明顯改變,今年將只有1.01人,未來十年也只會維持在1.1左右。
一般維持穩定人口結構的替代水準,為每名婦女生產2.1人,但我國自1984年後長期低於此數字,恐
會對整體人口結構造成巨大衝擊。
2025年我國老年人口預估達469萬,正式邁入超高齡社會。(圖片來源/國發會)
少生、老化促扶養比飆高,人口紅利漸流失
儘管出生率明顯下滑,但扶養比卻來到40.2的新高點,即每百名青壯人口,要扶養40.2名老幼人口。
原因在於我國人口邁向高齡化,65歲以上人口數共378萬人,佔總人口達16%,為高齡社會。
依照國發會最新預測,認為2025年老年人口將達到469萬,超過總人口數20%,
正式邁入超高齡社會,也較2018年時的預測提前一年。與此同時,14歲以下人口則持續下探
,去年仍佔12%、共296萬人,2050年將只剩約9%、189萬人,顯示我國老化速度飛快。
人口結構老化、出生率低迷,實為我國一大警鐘,也是重要的國安危機。
除青壯年扶養比日益沉重外,我國人口紅利也逐漸流失,長期來看將造成社會生產力低落,
包括產業缺工、消費力降低、政府稅收減少等問題。
「不婚」害的!政府推公托+津貼救生育率
中研院社會研究所副研究員鄭雁馨指出,生育率下滑的主因是結婚率降低。
由於傳統文化影響,結婚和生育高度相關,台灣的非婚生育比率極低,只有4%(歐盟平均41%)。
因此政府應該進一步釐清不婚結構,了解為何這麼多人不願意結婚或沒有結婚,
有伴侶的人又為何不結婚。
鄭雁馨批評,我國的生育政策過於直線思考,並不是效仿其他國家作法,
一年就能生出30萬個新生兒。她強調,除了發生育津貼以外,政府也必須讓民眾感受到政策的穩定性,
例如穩定、優質的公托環境等。
為鼓勵生育,衛福部5月推出許多鼓勵生育措施,包括發放生育津貼、托育費用補助、補助留職停薪津貼等,
也針對懷孕婦女改善照護措施,例如提高產檢次數及項目、增加帶薪產假。行政院政務委員林萬億也提及,
接下來將會推出長期政策,包括提高托育公共化比例、提高育兒津貼、營造友善職場等。
林萬億指出,德國曾利用提高公托比的方式拯救生育率,政府也希望仿效此方式,
將公托比例在4年內拉高至三成五,並推動送托比提升至72%。
我國總人口數減少,2020年較2019年減少近4萬人,預估未來仍呈降趨勢。
---------------------------
只是想抒發近期個人對此篇新聞的心得:
我個人覺得生育率低除了經濟問題外,最大的問題是職場文化,台灣職場
太多有著天真想法的高階主管,年輕人就是拿來壓榨;剝削甚至是
一個人抵多能工,然後大部分主管都不聽進去年輕人的想法;然後跟公司
主管反應如果現在還抱持著這樣的想法以後只會更找不到人、甚至素質
會更低,公司主管完全聽不進去,只會想“你不做後面一堆人要做”結果
就是年輕人流動率提高,一年四季換四個,我發現現實是一回事,做法
又是另外一回事,以下開放各位補充各種職場怪現象所導致年輕人不想
被凹的說法,隨便草莓族還是躺平族,管他的生育率..
其實小弟有嚴重的世代對立傾向,看到公司一堆的中、老年人都會覺得
“該死不死的”在那裏佔著位子做事效率又差尤其是60~70歲的
--
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at 2021-12-08T17:56
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By Aaliyah
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By Oscar
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By Valerie
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