台積:半導體明年恐衰退 - 工程師
By Iris
at 2022-10-14T08:31
at 2022-10-14T08:31
Table of Contents
台積:半導體明年恐衰退
2022/10/14 01:48:41
經濟日報 記者尹慧中/台北報導
台積電(2330)昨(13)日召開法說會,釋出第4季美元營收均值微幅季增0.4%、持平第3
季表現,雖仍有機會再挑戰新高,但成長幅度轉趨保守,台積電總裁魏哲家更預估2023年
半導體產業恐陷衰退,台積電會力求持續成長。
魏哲家昨日也首度鬆口,受半導體庫存調整、智慧機與個人電腦(PC)需求疲軟,影響台
積電7奈米家族(N7/N6)產能利用率,預期2023年下半年仍有望回升。台積電ADR早盤重
挫後反彈逾4%。
分析師追問關於N7下滑的關鍵終端客戶,魏哲家說,「這很難回答」,從主要的智慧機與
PC應用需求來看,庫存調整已經發生。
https://i.imgur.com/R6FSoRW.jpg
台積電今年第3季美元營收202.3億美元,台積電財務長黃仁昭指出,第4季5奈米製程的需
求持續增加,補足終端市場需求轉弱、客戶持續調整庫存的影響。預估第4季美元營收約
199億至207億美元,平均值換算季增幅約0.4%,在新台幣兌美元31.5假設基礎上,預估第
4季毛利率59.5%至61.5%,營業淨利率49至51%,平均值都持平前一季。
魏哲家指出,智慧機和個人電腦等終端市場疲軟,以及客戶產品進度延後,今年第4季起
台積電N7/N6產能利用率將不再處於過去三年的高點,預期這種情況將持續到2023年上半
年。他表示,庫存調整影響下,預估2023年半導體產業恐陷衰退,台積電會力求持續成長
,有7奈米之外的其他先進與特殊製程支持,全年仍會是成長的一年。
魏哲家表示,相關調整是周期因素而非結構因素,預計需求將在2023年下半年回升,台積
電仍持續開發特殊和具差異化的技術,有信心在未來幾年內推升另一波結構性需求,回填
相關產能。
魏哲家說,3奈米有許多客戶參與,客戶需求超過產能供給,預期3奈米產能將在2023年全
面利用,明年貢獻營收比重將占約中個位數百分比,預期在2023年營收貢獻將更高,3奈
米家族的N3E開發進度提前預計在2023年下半年量產。
https://reurl.cc/GE8agx
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