5nm極限限制對台積電是否真的很傷? - 工程師
By Frederic
at 2016-06-21T00:06
at 2016-06-21T00:06
Table of Contents
一般半導體的物理極限(線寬)是5nm左右
再縮下去就會有漏電流的問題
目前雖然有許多替代方式 像是3D堆疊, 可是那個其實不是真正治本的方式
我個人的評估是5年內台積電的先進製程就會碰到5nm的天花板
一旦碰觸到天花板又想不出好的替代方案
那就是原地踏步等待追兵從後趕上
如果要替換矽晶圓成碳基或是3/5族材料
台積電完全沒有競爭優勢, 而且這個轉換過程一定會先失血不少
基於上述理由
台積電是不是五年後非常有可能會崩盤?
目前台積每年100E美元的資本支出
如果這些研發支出目的是用打破5nm的物理極限
我認為不太可能會有什麼收益
我舉相對論為例比較容易懂
愛因斯坦的相對論預測真空中的光速為一恆定值
請問各位, 你覺得靠砸再多錢和人力 就有辦法做出違反相對論超越光速的飛行器???
狹義相對論已經發表都超過100年了, 目前還沒有人能挑戰成功光速的
回到原本的問題上
5nm是物理定律下造成的限制 (跟光速恆定很像)
靠砸錢和人力支出就有辦法違反這個物理定律???
我怎麼看都不太樂觀就是
各位覺得呢?
不過如果以台積電轉型變成傳產 我覺得也是不錯的一個方向
但傳產肯定就沒辦法像現在這樣那麼爽賺了
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