大潭8四月上線有變數 夏秋供電緊張 - 國營工作討論
By Ophelia
at 2023-01-29T16:50
at 2023-01-29T16:50
Table of Contents
※ [本文轉錄自 Gossiping 看板 #1ZrSn29z ]
作者: semih (Sayginer) 看板: Gossiping
標題: [新聞] 大潭8四月上線有變數 夏秋供電緊張
時間: Sun Jan 29 09:30:39 2023
https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230129000263-260110
04:10 2023/01/29 中國時報 王玉樹
大潭8四月上線有變數 夏秋供電緊張
2023年供電高度警戒!核二2號機3月中正式停機,少掉百萬瓩基載電力,相對台電預測尖
峰用電再成長100萬瓩,寄希望4月初大潭8號機可完工救援。有基層員工爆料,該機還有
很多測試要做,4月難度很高,甚至6月要上線調度都還有難度。
專家憂心,3到6月電力供應出現「空窗期」,清大工程與系統科學系教授葉宗洸直指,假
如8號機6月都無法上來,5月天氣一熱用電增,備轉容量鐵定跌破6%,中央大學管理講座
教授梁啟源則預估剩不到3%。
危機不僅在3到6月,葉宗洸表示,10月進入機組大修期,又有空汙季環保停機降載,加上
離岸風電建置不如預期,今年不管是夏天、秋天,只要有機組破管或故障,就有限電危機
,「2023年,將是供電最危險一年。」
24小時運轉的核二廠2號機,將於3月14日正式解聯除役,加上半導體設廠、經濟成長,今
年用電預測再增百萬瓩,是2023年供電大挑戰原因。
對此,台電發言人吳進忠說明,核二2雖少掉98.5萬瓩,但已規畫新增大潭8號機組,預計
3月底、4月初試運轉,可有112萬瓩。
對於8號機最晚4月初上線保證,台電基層員工爆料,該月目標僅是點火,有很多測試工作
還沒做完,即使到6月要上線接受調度,也有難度。
專家質疑並非空穴來風,回顧2021年5月,當時因為天氣爆熱、外銷暢旺,國內用電首度
在該月突破3700萬瓩,備轉率一度剩不到3%的警戒狀態。今年少掉核二,如果大潭8不能
準時,風險確實不容忽視。
吳進忠有信心,除大潭8外,去年因燃料價格爭議,少發的汽電共生100萬瓩可望回來,加
上試行新尖離峰時間電價,估今年可讓夜尖峰用電降低80萬到100萬瓩。其他需求面管理
,像是電力交易市場採購輔助、水力機組彈性調度等都會去做。
吳進忠估計,夏季夜尖峰可以維持7%到8%備轉容量率,秋冬10月較低,應該也可以有6
%以上。
https://i.imgur.com/K9tkIdr.jpg
2025年前電力新增與除役狀況
備註:有王美花在 大家放心
--
作者: semih (Sayginer) 看板: Gossiping
標題: [新聞] 大潭8四月上線有變數 夏秋供電緊張
時間: Sun Jan 29 09:30:39 2023
https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230129000263-260110
04:10 2023/01/29 中國時報 王玉樹
大潭8四月上線有變數 夏秋供電緊張
2023年供電高度警戒!核二2號機3月中正式停機,少掉百萬瓩基載電力,相對台電預測尖
峰用電再成長100萬瓩,寄希望4月初大潭8號機可完工救援。有基層員工爆料,該機還有
很多測試要做,4月難度很高,甚至6月要上線調度都還有難度。
專家憂心,3到6月電力供應出現「空窗期」,清大工程與系統科學系教授葉宗洸直指,假
如8號機6月都無法上來,5月天氣一熱用電增,備轉容量鐵定跌破6%,中央大學管理講座
教授梁啟源則預估剩不到3%。
危機不僅在3到6月,葉宗洸表示,10月進入機組大修期,又有空汙季環保停機降載,加上
離岸風電建置不如預期,今年不管是夏天、秋天,只要有機組破管或故障,就有限電危機
,「2023年,將是供電最危險一年。」
24小時運轉的核二廠2號機,將於3月14日正式解聯除役,加上半導體設廠、經濟成長,今
年用電預測再增百萬瓩,是2023年供電大挑戰原因。
對此,台電發言人吳進忠說明,核二2雖少掉98.5萬瓩,但已規畫新增大潭8號機組,預計
3月底、4月初試運轉,可有112萬瓩。
對於8號機最晚4月初上線保證,台電基層員工爆料,該月目標僅是點火,有很多測試工作
還沒做完,即使到6月要上線接受調度,也有難度。
專家質疑並非空穴來風,回顧2021年5月,當時因為天氣爆熱、外銷暢旺,國內用電首度
在該月突破3700萬瓩,備轉率一度剩不到3%的警戒狀態。今年少掉核二,如果大潭8不能
準時,風險確實不容忽視。
吳進忠有信心,除大潭8外,去年因燃料價格爭議,少發的汽電共生100萬瓩可望回來,加
上試行新尖離峰時間電價,估今年可讓夜尖峰用電降低80萬到100萬瓩。其他需求面管理
,像是電力交易市場採購輔助、水力機組彈性調度等都會去做。
吳進忠估計,夏季夜尖峰可以維持7%到8%備轉容量率,秋冬10月較低,應該也可以有6
%以上。
https://i.imgur.com/K9tkIdr.jpg
2025年前電力新增與除役狀況
備註:有王美花在 大家放心
--
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