參考譯文：TheRock - 翻譯

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原文題目：AIG's rescue - Size matters

　題目譯文：拯救 AIG - 大小很重要

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　原　文：

Even by the recent standards of Wall Street bailouts, that of American
International Group is colossal. At its peak the insurance firm was the
world’s largest with a market value of $239 billion. Its assets are bigger
than those of either Lehman Brothers or Fannie Mae. Yet size alone does not
explain the rescue. Nor do the images of customers queuing to cancel their
policies as far away as Singapore. AIG posed a systemic risk because of its
investment bank, tucked away behind the dull business of writing insurance
contracts, which has lost it both a fortune—and now its independence.

譯　文：

　縱使以近期華爾街援助對象的規模做為標準，美國國際集團 (AIG) 的規模也是很驚人
　的。這家保險公司在全盛時期是全世界最大的保險公司，市值高達 2390 億美元。雷
　曼兄弟 (Lehman Brothers) 和房利美 (Fannie Mae) 的資產也沒它多。但單憑規模這
　一點無法完全解釋 AIG 何以獲得援助，遠在新加坡的客戶排隊將保單解約的畫面也不
　是答案。（原因在於）AIG 造成了系統風險，而這風險源自該公司設在無趣保險業務
　背後的投資銀行，那是一家之前讓 AIG 虧了錢，現在又讓它失去自主權的投資銀行。

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　原　文：

At one stage, this unit contributed over a quarter of profits. It has
played the role of schmuck in one of finance' s most dangerous games by
writing credit-default swaps (CDSs), a type of guarantee against default,
with a giant notional exposure of $441 billion as of June. Of this, $58
billion is exposed to subprime securities which have already generated
huge mark-to-market losses. For regulators, the real horror story may be
the $307 billion of contracts written on instruments owned by banks in
America and Europe and designed to guarantee the banks' asset quality,
thereby helping their regulatory capital levels.

　譯　文：

這個單位（投資銀行）所貢獻的盈利曾超過 AIG 盈利的四分之一。透過簽發信用違
　約交換 (credit-default-swap, CDS) 這種違約保證保險，該單位在金融業這個最
　危險的遊戲中扮演冤大頭的角色。在 2008 年 6 月，其名目曝險部位達到 4410 億
　美元，且其中有高達 580 億美元的曝險對象是已帶來龐大市值損失的次貸證券。而
　對監理單位而言，真正令人驚懼的，是該公司為了擔保歐美地區銀行資產品質以使
　各銀行符合法定資本水準，而以各銀行持有之投資工具為承保對象，總金額高達
　 3070 億美元的 CDS 合約。

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原　文：

How much pain taxpayers will ultimately bear is an open question. The
official line is that AIG only suffered a liquidity crisis. As subprime
losses mounted, it had to put up more collateral with its counterparties,
in turn prompting credit-rating downgrades, which in turn triggered more
margin calls. It is probable that operating cashflow was drying up too as
big risk-sensitive commercial customers stopped doing business with the
insurer. On September 16th the Federal Reserve extended a two-year, $85
billion credit facility at a penal rate. The government will get a 79.9%
stake in the company in return. The idea is that this buys time for AIG
to improve its liquidity in an orderly way. The bail-out's structure
should also avoid a technical bankruptcy, which could force the unwinding
of many of those CDS contracts.

譯　文：

　納稅人最終將承受多少痛苦還沒有確切的答案。官方的說法是，AIG 只是發生了流動
　性危機。當次貸損失增加時，該公司必須向交易對象提出更多擔保品。此舉會促成信
　用評等的調降，而信評調降則會進一步發動更多擔保品追繳令。而該公司的營運現金
　流之所以會用盡，具風險敏感性的大型商務客戶停止與該保險公司往來也是可能的因
　素。9 月 16 日，聯準會以懲罰性利率借了 850 億美元的兩年期貸款給 AIG。政府
　將取得該公司 79.9% 的股權作為回報。聯準會的想法是，此舉可為 AIG 爭取時間，
　使其得以有條不紊地改善流動性。而且此一紓困方案也應該可以避免法律上的破產：
　若 AIG 破產恐將使前述許多 CDS 遭強制解約。

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原　文：

Yet might the government be taking over a company that is insolvent as well
as illiquid? Extrapolating from AIG's own test, but adjusting fully for
mark-to-market losses and stripping out goodwill and hybrid capital, even
at the end of June AIG might have had about $24 billion less book equity
than it needed to be safely capitalised. And some of its equity may be
“trapped” within its insurance subsidiaries, whose capital positions are
ringfenced by insurance regulators. That might leave the holding company
that taxpayers have backed in a far worse state. On September 17th Eric
Dinallo, New York’s insurance regulator, vouched for the solvency of AIG's
insurance subsidiaries but was more circumspect on the company overall.

譯　文：

　但政府會不會接收到一家週轉不靈又無力償債的公司呢？若以 AIG 自己做的財務測
　試結果進行推算，在調整其市值損失全額並扣除商譽及混合資產後，就算在六月底，
　AIG 的帳面資本也比其穩當營運所需資本短少了 240 億美元。而且該公司的部分資
　產可能「套牢」在其保險子公司裡，這些子公司的資產部位可是被保險監理機關牢牢
　看管的。前述情形可能會使這家有了納稅人當靠山的控股公司處於更不利的狀態。紐
　約州保險監理官 Eric Dinallo 在 9 月 17 日保證 AIG 旗下保險子公司的清償能力
　沒有問題，但對該公司的整體清償能力則有所保留。

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原　文：

Ultimately, though, AIG may turn out be worth something after all: in
June it had $67 billion of tangible equity, a much bigger buffer relative
to assets than existed at Lehman or Bear Stearns. And, says Andrew Rear of
Oliver Wyman, a consultancy, AIG's insurance assets will attract a lot
of interest. That raises the chances of their being sold at a premium,
raising cash for the holding company. If the government holds on long
enough, perhaps even AIG's CDS contracts might make money.

譯　文：

　不過到最後，AIG 說不定還會有些價值：該公司在六月擁有 670 億美元的實體資產，
　相較於雷曼或貝爾斯登 (Bear Sterns) 所剩資產，其緩衝效果可大得多。此外，
　Oliver Wyman 顧問公司的 Andrew Rear 表示，AIG 的保險資產會引起不少人的興
　趣。這可增加以溢價賣出這些資產好為該控股公司籌措資金的機會。如果政府持有
　的時間夠長，也許連 AIG 的 CDS 契約都能賺點錢。

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